Monday 24 November 2008

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Oscillators now remain in fairly oversold territory, but it serves to note that there exists a substantial divergence of price and MACD lows through recent trade. That is to say that the current lows in price have not coincided with fresh lows in the daily MACD or more traditional oscillators. This is a fairly bullish signal, as it suggests selling pressures have eased. Our bias subsequently eyes further retracement from recent lows, and we may have to wait for a renewed panic in AUD/USD selling for the pair to break multi-year lows at 0.6000.

Much as we wrote yesterday, further consolidation in the New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar pair leaves little directional bias for upcoming trade, as the pair trades almost exactly at the middle of its recent price channel. Overall momentum favors further NZD/USD declines, but the lack of conviction in recent price action suggests that the pair may continue to consolidate until further notice. Noteworthy support for the NZD/USD comes in at previous lows of 0.5186. Resistance comes in at weekly highs of 0.5754. Much like we see in the AUD/USD, there exists a fairly clear bullish divergence in fresh price lows and comparatively bullish oscillators.

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