Showing posts with label market stress. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market stress. Show all posts

Monday, 24 November 2008

ForexGen | Forex Latest News…


Oscillators now remain in fairly oversold territory, but it serves to note that there exists a substantial divergence of price and MACD lows through recent trade. That is to say that the current lows in price have not coincided with fresh lows in the daily MACD or more traditional oscillators. This is a fairly bullish signal, as it suggests selling pressures have eased. Our bias subsequently eyes further retracement from recent lows, and we may have to wait for a renewed panic in AUD/USD selling for the pair to break multi-year lows at 0.6000.

Much as we wrote yesterday, further consolidation in the New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar pair leaves little directional bias for upcoming trade, as the pair trades almost exactly at the middle of its recent price channel. Overall momentum favors further NZD/USD declines, but the lack of conviction in recent price action suggests that the pair may continue to consolidate until further notice. Noteworthy support for the NZD/USD comes in at previous lows of 0.5186. Resistance comes in at weekly highs of 0.5754. Much like we see in the AUD/USD, there exists a fairly clear bullish divergence in fresh price lows and comparatively bullish oscillators.

ForexGen Currency News…


Currency trading markets continue very highly correlated to broader risky asset classes, as the common theme of financial market deleveraging creates strong links between sometimes unrelated market prices. One of the clearest examples is the high correlation between the Japanese Yen and the US Dow Jones Industrials Average—at its strongest in at least 20 years. Highly risk-averse markets tend to buy the Yen and sell equities at the same time. As such, it remains important to watch the Dow and other indices—especially as the Dow Jones trades near important 10-year support.

Other noteworthy relationships include the increasingly tight correlation between the G10 Forex Carry Trade and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodities Index. Given that financial deleveraging can affect all types of highly-leveraged markets, we see that many commodities have sold off and rallied at the same time as the FX Carry trade. The G10 Forex Carry Trade currently consists of going long the New Zealand Dollar, Norwegian Krone, and Danish Krone while going short the US Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen. A continuation of ongoing themes of financial market stress will likely keep these relationships intact through the foreseeable future.